Recession expectations are all over the place

50 shades of recession

Recession expectations are all over the place. This is a very different picture from only six months ago when everyone was dead sure recession was coming. The most extreme divergence is of course between what buyside "says" they think and what the major investment bank's forecasts are but there are also some important divergences how the market is trading recession. Time for a thread with some random recession reflections. Key trading take-away has to be that it is "muddy" at best what the market (real consensus) is expecting around recession and that one therefore has to expect continued choppy trading around major incoming macro data.

Recession probabilities