Bitcoin Is Breaking… And Nobody Cares (Yet)
Nobody really cares (yet)
BTC is quietly doing something important. The downtrend has snapped, price is pushing well above key levels, and positioning still feels light after months of neglect.
Nobody owns it. Nobody believes it.
That’s exactly how squeezes start.
Breaking the trend
BTC is pushing higher. The long-standing downtrend line has broken, and price is now trading well above the 100-day by a margin not seen in a long time. A clean close here or higher, and things could get very squeezy for a largely forgotten BTC.
Source: LSEG Workspace
Waiting for the cross
Recent BTC bull runs have tended to kick off when the 21-day crosses above the 100-day, what we call the “light golden cross.” We’re now very close to that setup again… let’s see if this one follows through.
Source: LSEG Workspace
That tech gap
The BTC vs NDX gap remains wide. BTC has started to feel like Facebook post-shift… ignored, written off, and left behind while even boring tech squeezes. Chart 2 shows the disconnect vs META.
Source: LSEG Workspace
Source: LSEG Workspace
No noise, just grind
BTC leaving many "traditional assets" behind since early March. From the top: BTC, NDX, SPX, DXY and gold.
Source: LSEG Workspace
Loves imploding VIX
Contrary to still popular belief, BTC is not a VIX hedge. If anything, it tends to thrive when VIX resets lower.
Source: LSEG Workspace
Speculation spillover
Regular TME readers know a lot of South Korean fast money rotated out of BTC to chase the KOSPI rally. Has that trade gone too far? Are some of those flows starting to come back? Chart shows BTC vs KOSPI (inverted).
Source: LSEG Workspace
Same crowd
There’s little fundamental overlap between BTC and software, but the crowd psychology looks strikingly similar. The magnitude of the IGV squeeze has been brutal… let’s see if BTC can show something similar.
Source: LSEG Workspace
What about the liquidity connection?
The liquidity link took a back seat in 2025... but if that relationship starts kicking back in here, it only adds fuel to the move.
Source: Stifel
Use BTC options
BTC volatility has continued to trend lower. We prefer expressing views via options here rather than chasing the underlying. Chart shows 1- and 3-month implied vols.
This is still early… but not for long if the squeeze kicks in.
