Bitcoin - this has never happened before

To the moon

Bitcoin RSI at 88. We have not seen RSI this overbought AND bitcoin trading at these absolute levels, ever. Chasing it here looks like a very late trade.

Source: Refinitiv


Leaving the 200 day moving average behind

BTC is trading some 70% above the 200 day moving average which is rather extreme, but we saw more extreme "dislocations" twice during the 2021 melt up.

Source: Refinitiv


The bitcoin long... getting rather long. Chart shows JPM's positioning proxy.

Source: JPM


The world is not enough

Has the "institutional" BTC bid woken up? Chart shows flow pace into publicly-listed Bitcoin funds including Bitcoin ETFs.

Source: JPM


Digital is all the rage

Cumulative flows in all BTC funds vs gold ETF holdings.

Source: JPM


JPM on the most anticipated crypto event

1. The Bitcoin halving event, set for the end of April, will cut miner rewards from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC per block, negatively affecting miner profitability due to lower rewards and increased production costs.

2. The current estimated central production cost of Bitcoin is $26.5k, expected to double to $53k post-halving due to reduced rewards.

3. A projected 20% drop in the Bitcoin network's hashrate post-halving, primarily from less efficient miners exiting, would adjust the production cost estimate to $42k.

4. After the initial excitement from the halving event subsides (expected after April), Bitcoin prices are anticipated to stabilize around the $42k level, aligning with the adjusted production cost estimate.

Source: JPM


Broken bitcoin "correlations"


1 - The Fed BS connection

There used to be a narrative of Fed's BS expansion driving BTC. This is no more...

Source: Refinitiv


2 - The dollar debasement play

Pundits used to explain that you buy BTC because of the dollar losing value. The DXY has not fallen over the past years. Another broken narrative....

Source: Refinitiv


3 - Not a fear hedge

People used to argue that BTC is a fear hedge, and partly a VIX substitute. Currently, the only fear we see is the BTC FOMO factor.

Source: Refinitiv


4 - The inflation hedge

As Sarwe of Nordea macro writes: "A totally repulsive chart-crime...But you have to admit it is pretty funny..." Another broken correlation, or is BTC trying to tell us something about the future of inflation?

Source: Nordea