Bond Vigilantes Call Bessent’s Bluff As The 10-Year Eyes 5%

Betting against the house

Rates are moving into the danger zone. The 10-year has cleared 4.8% and is marching towards 5%, while the 30-year is already trading in uncharted territory. Oil is adding fresh inflation pressure just as the fiscal outlook turns increasingly expansionary.

The trend remains powerful, but the asymmetry is becoming more dangerous, and a disorderly breakout risks spilling into equities.