Bond Vol Just Collapsed — Now Watch The Squeeze?

Rates rejection, oil disconnect, squeeze setup

Yields tested 4.4% and failed. At the same time, bond volatility has quietly collapsed, removing a key headwind for risk.

The oil–rates relationship is also starting to crack. Bond vol had been moving almost one-for-one with crude, reinforcing the inflation narrative, but that link is now weakening as MOVE rolls over despite elevated oil levels.