Bonds Break, Oil Whipsaws, Stocks Don’t Blink

Bonds break. Stocks haven’t blinked

The bond market is setting the pace. The 10-year has broken out of a three-year range, MOVE has surged, and small caps are feeling the pressure. Equities and VIX still look calm, but that calm faces a test as buybacks fade into October.

Oil is causing pain of its own: crowded longs have been flushed, yet oil vol shows little stress. Across assets, the question is how long equity calm can survive faster moves in rates.