Bonds' Parabolic Panic

US 10 year going parabolic

The trend lines are getting steeper and steeper. This move is going parabolic. The golden cross from mid July has been truly golden...

Source: Refinitiv

Mortgage mamma-mia

Monthly payment on the median priced home up 27% YoY, +120% from mortgage rate lows ~2.5 years ago.

Source: Morgan Stanley

The crocodile gap

The gap between NASDAQ and the US 10 year (inv) is getting wider and wider...

Source: Refinitiv

HYG refuses

HYG is basically back to the most recent lows, trading well offered. The short term gap vs SPX is getting wide. Last time the HYG was here SPX was some 90 points lower...

Source: Refinitiv

Main war hedges well bid

Oil vol, OVX, and gold vol, GVZ, continue moving higher again...

Source: Refinitiv

Golden pain

McElligott on gold gamma: "...Gamma sellers in the space have gotten absolutely roasted the past month, as 20d rVol has exploded from 6.3 to current 17.6 and 10d rVol moving from 7.3 to 20.0 (!!!)….which is then further contributing to the expansion of the price-range".

Source: Nomura

Surging tails

Both the SDEX and the TDEX are printing new recent highs.

Source: Refinitiv

VIX dealers

Not overly "comfortable" levels of dealer positioning should things get "fluid". There has been fresh demand for VIX Jan upside according to Nomura's McElligott.

Source: Nomura

Will there be outflows?

Restrictive monetary policy has eventually led to large equity outflows.

Source: Haver

It is the final countdown

In less than a week the buyback machines will be back in full force. GS: "This is the final week of the estimated blackout window. This next open window period is estimated to be 10/23 /23 - 12/08/23."

Source: GS buyback desk

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