The Brazil Trade Just Went Nuclear

Brazil surprises

Flávio Bolsonaro delivered a major upside surprise in Brazil's first round, taking 47.1% versus Lula's 45.1% and beating the poll-of-polls by more than 4 points.

The strength was broad. Bolsonaro outperformed in all three major battlegrounds, winning São Paulo 51.9% to 38.2%, Minas Gerais 48.3% to 43.2% and Rio 53.0% to 39.4%. He also exceeded Jair Bolsonaro's 2022 first-round baseline, while Lula underperformed his.