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Bullish bears

Most bullish bear ever

We had "best recession ever" and now Mike Wilson becomes the most bullish bear ever. Mike Wilson expects near-term uncertainty to give way to an earnings recovery. For December 2024, Mike forecasts a 17.0x P/E multiple on 12-month forward EPS (2025) of US$266, which equates to a 4,500 price target ~12 months from today. Mike sees a strong earnings growth environment in 2025 (+16%Y), as positive operating leverage and tech-driven productivity growth (AI) lead to margin expansion. (Morgan Stanley)

Back to neutral

Aggregate equity positioning has bounced, now back at neutral. Imagine they start chasing this for real...

Source: DB

The tech long...

Source: DB

"Inverse" fear

Source: Refinitiv

10 year technicals

Source: Refinitiv

Tech or rates...or both?

Source: Refinitiv

Rates vs oil

Source: Refinitiv

Rates vs breakevens

Source: Refinitiv

Bond convexity

Source: GS

Bond vs equity "fear"

Source: Refinitiv