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To capitulate, or to have capitulated, that is the question

The most confusing set-up in years

Calling a bottom has turned into a full-time job. Every indicator contradicts the next—systematics aren’t done selling, sentiment isn’t extreme, yet retail has vanished and hedge fund positioning is collapsing. Bulls see a setup. Bears see unfinished business. Both may be right… or wrong. Here are 4 observations for the bears and 4 for the bulls.

1 - Systematics: Not there yet