Gold to Fed - just catching up
Gold's comeback has definitely managed confusing some people out there. In early May we suggested gold was "Waking up" as we wrote that upside in gold, (via upside call spreads) was looking attractive;
"Note 100 day moving is right around here, so it will take some "effort" to push gold above it, but given the fact nobody likes gold these days, a possible break out could be "dynamic".
Gold volatility has imploded over past months in sympathy with other global vols. Recall that gold volatility trades with a positive "skew". Sharp moves higher in gold are accompanied with moves higher in gold volatility. Playing a possible upside with call spreads makes sense here."
Much has happened since then (especially post the latest bitcoin crash), but here we are, gold back in fashion, just when people had abandoned it.
First chart is the forgotten Fed BS vs gold chart people used to "follow" before. Is gold the true "debasement" trade after all?
Second chart shows the move higher in gold accompanied with GVZ moving higher as well (gold's positive skew). Gold has a first bigger resistance at 1900 which will be crucial to watch. Note RSI has come a long way, so chasing gold here and now is starting to get a little late.
"Note 100 day moving is right around here, so it will take some "effort" to push gold above it, but given the fact nobody likes gold these days, a possible break out could be "dynamic".
Gold volatility has imploded over past months in sympathy with other global vols. Recall that gold volatility trades with a positive "skew". Sharp moves higher in gold are accompanied with moves higher in gold volatility. Playing a possible upside with call spreads makes sense here."
Much has happened since then (especially post the latest bitcoin crash), but here we are, gold back in fashion, just when people had abandoned it.
First chart is the forgotten Fed BS vs gold chart people used to "follow" before. Is gold the true "debasement" trade after all?
Second chart shows the move higher in gold accompanied with GVZ moving higher as well (gold's positive skew). Gold has a first bigger resistance at 1900 which will be crucial to watch. Note RSI has come a long way, so chasing gold here and now is starting to get a little late.