print-icon
print-icon

GS lowering oil price; still mega bullish though

Goldman: "we make two adjustments to our expectations. First, we reflect a larger than previously expected lockdown hit to 2Q22 Chinese demand alongside weaker expected global economic growth, partly offset by a larger deficit at the start of the year and sustained gas-to-oil substitution going forward. Second, we update our probability weightings for the potential losses of Russian export volumes, reflecting smaller odds of a very large disruption, with contracted barrels and concealed vessels still loading. From a fundamental perspective, this points to an only slightly smaller - but still net bullish - shock to the global oil market than before the Ukraine invasion"
On prices: "Our 2Q22 Brent forecast is now $120/bbl, with our 2H22-forecast remaining unchanged at $135 as the recovery in Chinese demand requires higher price induced demand destruction. Our 2023 forecast is now $110/bbl, still well above market forwards as lower Russian output will require higher shale production growth"