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Defying gravity

NASDAQ - perfection continues

The perfect trend channel that has been in place since March lows stays very much intact. This time around we touched the 21 day and decided to bounce (without even testing the lower part of the channel). Note how far down the 50 day is...

Source: Refinitiv

 

NASDAQ fear refuses to puke

Well, volatilities have already puked, but note the fact VXN isn't taking out new recent lows, despite the fact tech has continued to surge. The volatility up, spot up market is back! Upside is the new downside risk. Just look at the NVDA options activity today.

Source: Refinitiv

 

Sentiment

Sentiment is positive and can stay in positive territory for long time periods. The current one looks "tiny"...

Source: GS

 

The implied beat

US economic surprises have surged recently, implying an 8% beat for earnings.

Source: BofA

 

Beating low expectations

Nothing new really, but the bar is low and the market loves to beat low expectations.

Source: GS

 

DB sees the dollar moving even lower

They see renewed weakness for the dollar and think their 1.15 EURUSD target for the rest of the year is going to come into play, with a possible overshoot "we see a 1.15-1.20 range by the end of the year as entirely possible." They sum up their view with "... ongoing a confirmation that the US disinflation process is underway in soft landing conditions is for us the most important macro variable for the rest of the year".

Source: DB

 

Never forget the dry powder

Plenty of capital ready to be deployed by private equity. The question is, when do they give in to the latest FOMO?

Source: BofA

 

The wedge

SPX has basically decoupled from reserves. The most recent squeeze has broken many relationships...

Source: Refinitiv

 

The decoupling

NASDAQ has left the Fed BS behind. Haven't seen such a short term gap in forever...but guess we can thank AI.

Source: Refinitiv

 

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