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Enjoy it while it lasts, 'cause it never does

The canary in the calm water...

Lou Mannheim and experienced seafarers know, calm waters never last forever. It has been the best of times from a volatility perspective over the past few months cross-assets and especially so in FX and equities. Astute readers of TME know that we now are leaning to being long equity volatility. Let's have a look at some "best of times" charts and the canaries showing that it might be coming to an end.

Tight volatility regime

G10 volatility hit bottom in June; volatility regime prevailing since February 2022 is still in place, says Soc Gen.

Source: Soc Gen

FX volatility has been rather calm

Source: Refinitiv

Minimal tail

Source: Soc Gen

Very little volatility in macro lately

Source: Goldman

Rates volatility

Source: Goldman

Remember 1.5% sell-offs...?

Source: GS trading desk

Closing in on complacency

Source: Morgan Stanley

Will it spill over?

Source: Refinitiv

Watch sudden "exotic" FX moves

Source: Refinitiv

Complacent about the BS?

Source: Refinitiv

VIX seasonality

Source: Nomura