Everything Looks Calm — Until You Look Under The Hood

Calm on the Surface

VIX remains depressed and the market is still largely pinned, but things are getting more interesting under the hood. Skew has jumped, hyperscaler credit stress is picking up while tech vol sleeps, and downside hedging demand is starting to return.

Nothing has broken yet, but positioning becomes much less friendly a few percent lower, where CTAs, dealers and leveraged ETFs could all start selling together.