Extreme Oil, Extreme Vol… What Breaks First?

Oil back in charge

Oil isn’t just moving, it’s starting to dominate the tape again. What began as a controlled grind higher has now turned into a far more aggressive move overnight. The question is no longer whether oil matters, it’s whether markets are ready for how far this can go if the squeeze accelerates from here. Vol markets look increasingly dislocated, with chaos now being actively priced.

This helps explain why vol remains so elevated, the market is still trying to price the true scale of the disruption.