The fA(I)de

Watch the JPY closely

So far this is a boring Friday for equities, but some cross assets are showing massive moves. The JPY vs SPX chart shouldn't be dismissed...

Source: Refinitiv

JPY on to something...

Interesting gap between the 10 year and the JPY over past 24 hours. Citi adds some color: "We have seen de-risking across equities and high carry trades in EM FX. JPY has been a popular funder, and so broader unwinds are probably mechanically weighing on USDJPY".

Source: Refinitiv

It never matters...

...until it matters. Last update of the NASDAQ vs US 10 year (inverted) chart for this week.

Source: Refinitiv

How much are you willing to pay for tech?

Great chart via Soc Gen's Edwards showing the latest tech PE expansion vs trailing EPS. AI is great, but what price are you willing to pay to own the hype?

Source: Soc Gen

Welcome to extreme

US IT market cap is now over 30% of total market cap. Can we push it even higher?

Source: Soc Gen

Tech ain't immune

Tech spending is not recession "proof". According to BofA: "Tech capex declines have averaged -7.4% in past recessions".

Source: Refinitiv

The AI fade

Hartnett writes: "AI remains a narrative based on speculative numbers; but the numbers are big (ChatGPT web traffic down 10% in June, 1st ever drop, but still 1.8bn to 1.6bn visits ain’t bad)".

Chat GPT fading

Let the trend be your friend...

Source: Google

Care about reserves?

The gap between SPX and Fed reserves is getting very wide.

Source: Refinitiv

Europe's puke

The SX5E is down some 5% in a few sessions. Note we are well below the 50 and the 100 day moving averages, although there hasn't been a real trend in the SX5E this year. The crowd remains long and wrong this space...

Source: Refinitiv

See TME's daily newsletter email above. For the 24/7 market intelligence feed and thematic trading emails, sign up for ZH premium here.