Fat and flat mania lives on

Everybody got excited about the break out in SPX, got sucked in, just to realize that the "fat and flat" narrative remains intact. The big range is intact, and for the short term, we are approaching the first supports around 4100...

Source: Refinitiv

NASDAQ - just a much needed correction

NASDAQ continues the reversal move lower, still inside the trend channel that has been in place since Jan lows. 21 day is still lower at 13450, and the 50 day at 13180...so still room to move lower and things would continue to stay "intact".

Source: Refinitiv

No more VIXuberance

The gap between VIX and SPX several strategist pointed on out was a bullish "signal" (here) has now shrunk dramatically. On Friday we reminded our readers: "VIX here is at it's post Covid "natural floor". VIX has moved from 17 to just under 21 since then...Chasing it here is late...

Source: Refinitiv

VIX - was that just the start?

Investors became complacent before the latest vol spike. BofA's great derivatives team writes: "...we remain of the view that equity vol has become irrationally complacent relative to today's macro risks and has material potential to spike higher". Their chart is very interesting as it continues to track the Tech bubble unwind.

Source: BofA

CTAs hitting levels

1 week: flat market $5.1bn to buy, up market $9.6bn to buy, down market $27.8bn to sell

1 month: flat market $5.7bn to sell, up market $38.1bn to buy, down market $209bn to sell

Note we are right at the short term threshold as of writing, 4116. MT at 4066 (the most important), while the LT is at 4141. Chart shows SPX projected flows via Goldman's flow guru Scott Rubner.

Source: GS

MAGMA mania

Goldman's prime book shows that the "smart" crowd has been busy working longs in MAGMA stuff...

Source: Refinitiv

and the daily AI dose...

AI adoption time

AI is beyond superlatives...

Source: DB

AI optimism

AI optimism has helped lift the mega-cap tech stocks.

Source: GS

Need a bigger AI screen

News flow has gone beyond parabolic...

Source: Soc Gen

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