Fat is the new gold

Is that an AI stock?

Another day another new all time high for Eli Lilly.

Source: Refinitiv

Obesity is the new AI

Time to track who is talking obesity on the earnings calls. Chart shows S&P 500 HC companies who have referred to Obesity / GLP-1 during their 2Q23 earnings calls.

Source: Goldman

COVID vaccines are so 2022

A long LLY/short PFE setup has generated ~90% returns YTD and the gap between these two stocks is continuing to widen ...

Source: FactSet

Disruption wedge

GLP-1 disruption wedge still growing: Performance of the GS HC Obesity Basket vs the GS HC GLP-1 risk basket is pretty extreme.

Source: Goldman

NOVO: King of the North

Actually king of all of Europe. But looking at just the Nordic markets, Novo is doing all the work. Excluding Novo, the MSCI Nordic index remains stuck in an 18-month long bear market.

Source: SEB X-Asset

Fat > handbags

It feels fundamentally sound that a company that cures obesity should be the highest valued one in Europe, rather than a company that sells overpriced handbags to people with low self-esteem. Novo Nordisk now worth >€400bn, LVMH 'only' €382bn.

Source: Bloomberg

He wants to be the fattest cat...

Bernard Arnault has bought €215mln of LVMH shares since the luxury firm's disappointing earnings in late July contributed to a drop in the stock price. Arnault's fortune has fallen by $40bn since July. No longer the richest globally nor does he have the largest market cap in Europe.

Source: Bloomberg

Huge! Americans will eat 30% less calories...

Lateral read-across! Morgan Stanley outlines how the biggest theme in healthcare now is making its way into the consumer. MS estimate a 20-30% reduction in daily calorie consumption as patients cut back on food intake across most categories and eat 20/40% fewer meals and snacks. Their proprietary US calorie model points to a 1-2% headwind to calories consumed by 2035 from the growing adoption of anti-obesity medications. (Morgan Stanley)