Gold's $2600 Moment, Euro(pe) Meltdown and SPY’s Inflow Frenzy

Gold - say hello to make or break

$2600 is huge. The long term trend line comes in right here. Note we are well below the 50 day, but still above the 100 day ($2540).

Source: Refinitiv

The Trump effect

US equity positioning surges to 11-year high post-Trump election victory according to BofA's latest FMS. All in is not unique these days...

Source: BofA

Inflow mania

SPY has seen nine straight days of inflows, totaling ~$18 billion—the longest streak since a 10-day run in 2014.

Source: GS

Overshooting

Equity positioning never turned underweight as we saw during the past 2 elections....and we are now overshooting big time.

Source: DB

Europe's death cross

The SX5E is putting in a death cross, 50 crossing the 200 day. Europe continues to trade well offered. We are breaking below the massive 4800 level as of writing. No bueno...

Source: Refinitiv

Shitty euro - how long can you go?

DB's Saravelos has crushed it calling the most recent euro short. His latest view summed up: "... if the Trump agenda is implemented in full force and quickly without a countervailing policy response from Europe or China, we could see EUR/USD drop through parity to 0.95 cents or even below. This would be an overshoot that takes the real trade-weighted dollar to record highs, exceeding the Volcker period. A more balanced approach to the various scenarios would suggest a EUR/USD drop to 1.00 that matches the dollar's historical record highs but does not exceed it." We are basically printing the massive 1.06 level as of writing. This is the short term make or break level...