Gold's Next Big Move
Nobody Owns Gold
Gold has spent months frustrating both bulls and bears. Prices remain trapped, momentum is weak and the dollar has turned into a headwind. Yet beneath the surface, one thing stands out: almost nobody owns the trade anymore.
That could matter if gold finally starts moving.
Heavy gold
Gold is trading below both the 200-day moving average and the short-term trendline, but continues to hold the more important longer-term uptrend.
Momentum remains poor, although the price action may be forming a second higher low. Gold looks increasingly compressed here. While there is no obvious catalyst, the current setup suggests a decisive move could be getting closer.
Source: LSEG Workspace
Flows
Very few investors own gold at the moment. ETF holdings have fallen to a new low for the year, futures open interest sits near a 17-year low and net long positioning remains subdued. ETF investment is also close to zero year-to-date.
The first signs of life are beginning to emerge. ETF inflows turned positive on June 19 and speculative investors have finally started adding exposure again. Positioning remains well below previous highs, suggesting any rebuilding of gold exposure could still be in its early stages.
Gold has also become increasingly sensitive to flows. Smaller ETF inflows and outflows are now driving much larger price moves than in the past, suggesting less transparent sources of demand may be playing a growing role. Deutsche Bank estimates ETF inflows would need to rise to roughly 5 million troy ounces to support a move toward $4,800/oz, only modestly above the year-to-date peak.
Source: DB
Source: DB
Source: LSEG Workspace
The dollar connection
The dollar's latest rally has caught many off guard. Since September, gold and the DXY have traded closely together, making the greenback one of the most important variables for the gold outlook.
Before putting on a large gold position, keep a close eye on the dollar.
Source: LSEG Workspace
Follow Fed
Gold linkage to Fed pricing more influential after May.
Source: DB
The new driver
A more hawkish Fed outlook and stronger-than-expected US data have become the dominant drivers of gold. The shift became evident last month when gold stopped following oil higher and began diverging instead.
Source: DB
China and India
China and India gold demand has remained resilient and has even strengthened since January. However, forward indicators are turning less supportive. The Shanghai Gold Exchange premium has recently flipped to a discount versus Comex, historically a negative signal for Chinese gold imports and demand.
A stronger yuan, potential stabilization in China's property market, and tighter controls on capital outflows could further reduce the need for gold as a hedge or alternative investment. While there are currently no official signals regarding gold ownership, the situation is worth monitoring closely according to DB.
Source: DB
Gold volatility
Gold volatility has come down considerably from the highs seen earlier this year, but it is still far from dirt cheap. The more interesting development is happening beneath the surface, where skew has repriced aggressively.
Investors are paying up for downside protection while largely abandoning upside optionality. That has left upside structures looking relatively attractive on a relative-value basis.
Source: LSEG Workspace
