Happy days

The Market Ear Picture

No AI... no upside volatility chasing

US is king of AI. Note the difference in upside volatility between SPX and SX5E.

Source: GS


Ex-out Big Tech and we are not even expensive

SPX P/E excluding Big Tech is much closer to the median levels than the headline index.

Source: Barclays


Exclude the top 50...

...and things look rather reasonable when zooming out.

Source: BofA



Fed BS down, VIX down. Lately they are moving in perfect tandem...

Source: Refinitiv


Happy days

SPX is trading at the same levels we traded at when VIX was at 15 a few sessions ago...but VIX is now some 10% lower...

Source: Refinitiv


Last time VIX was here

You don't compare mean reverting assets (volatility) with trending assets over longer periods, but the short term exuberance by VIX is getting very "impressive". VIX at these levels is pricing "Goldilocks"...

Source: Refinitiv


Soggy Europe

Last time the Citi Europe economic surprise index was here, gas prices were a big issue for Europe.

Source: Refinitiv


Cyclical hate

Cyclical net ownership is in the 1st % tile going back a decade.

Source: Morgan Stanley


Bear markets we remember

This is getting frustrating for the bears out there...

Source: Ophir/Mike Zaccardi


Massively bullish bulls and evaporating bears

We have been waiting for this exuberance to kick in and here it is. Latest AAII bulls showing a huge spike, and bears throwing in the towel.

Source: Refinitiv


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