Hormuz, El Niño, And The Next Food-Price Surge

The agriculture tail

Crop inventories remain comfortable, but GS GIR’s Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven see the upside risks to agriculture prices building.

Hormuz disruptions, renewed Black Sea tensions and a potentially historic Super El Niño are arriving at the same time, while increasingly protectionist trade policies could amplify any supply shock.