“I Am The House Now”: Europe Cracks, AI Holds, And Something Has To Give

Macro cracks, AI holds

Europe is beginning to crack under the combined weight of surging energy, rising yields, French sovereign stress and a stronger yen. Yet US tech refuses to properly break, supported by an AI demand story that continues to strengthen even as credit and macro signals deteriorate.

The market is caught between strong fundamentals and increasingly fragile plumbing. With correlation and straddles near the floor, owning the eventual break may be cleaner than guessing its direction.