Investors Are Too Cautious: The Setup For A Tech Melt-Up

Trapped

Tech remains trapped at resistance, but the setup underneath is becoming increasingly skewed to the upside. Earnings are strong, sentiment is bearish, hedge funds have de-grossed aggressively, NDX shorts are up 35% and cash balances remain elevated.

Meanwhile, rates have yet to create a genuine financial-conditions shock, and the large AI call buyer has returned, reviving the spot-up, vol-up dynamic. With bullish seasonality approaching, the ingredients for an upside vacuum are falling into place.