It should really bounce around here...

Oversold again

RSI of NASDAQ and SPX at/ close to new recent lows.

Source: Refinitiv

A lot of shorting

GS PB: "the amount of shorting in US equities since mid-August is the largest in six months and ranks in the 98th percentile vs. the past decade."

Source: GS

A lot of hedging

The VIX term structure has shifted aggressively higher, with the short end of the curve showing the biggest change. This is where people hedge fear first...We are far from extreme pricing of VIX, but shifts like the ones we have seen lately could be a short term contrarian indicator.

Source: Vixcentral

A lot of gamma selling

Haven't seen this much short gamma in a long time. Dealers have been forced to sell deltas as we have moved lower. This has pressured the market. Recall, that gamma works both ways, so a possible bounce from here would force dealers to buy back all that delta they sold recently.

Source: Tier1Alpha

The "what if?" chart

NASDAQ's 1999 analogy chart isn't perfect, but imagine the pain should we see some late autumn similarities kick in...

Source: Refinitiv

Q4 rally

When the S&P 500 is up YTD between 10-20% at the end of September, the fourth quarter has been higher 84% of the time. Very small down examples as well. Q4 is just 4 trading days away...

Source: Ryan Detrick

I like those odds

When NASDAQ is up >30% for the first 9 months, the Q4 statistics look pretty compelling...

Source: Goldman

S&P493 basically flat in 2023

The S&P 493, which is the S&P 500 excluding 7 technology stocks, is now up just 4% this year. Time for this group to shine in Q4?

Source: Kobeissi

Realized bond volatility coming down

Realized bond volatility has fallen well below its elevated range through the hiking cycle.

Source: Deutsche Bank

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