The Macro Is Breaking. So Why Are Stocks Refusing To?
The squeeze versus the macro
The dollar is breaking higher, liquidity is deteriorating and earnings momentum is starting to roll over. Meanwhile, the AI boom is revealing an increasingly complex web of financial commitments, just as the broader macro backdrop turns less forgiving. Yet the market isn't without support. Valuations are less extreme than the bubble narrative suggests, positioning has been aggressively cleaned out and corporate buybacks are returning in size. Add supportive seasonality, and the ingredients for another powerful squeeze are falling into place. The fundamentals are getting more challenging, but the next big move doesn't necessarily have to be lower.