The Market Is Pricing Boredom. We’re Not So Sure
Complacency Has a Price
Equities remain firmly in risk-on mode, supported by the capex boom and the prospect of renewed releveraging. But beneath the calm, some interesting cracks are emerging. Bond volatility is increasingly nervous while equity vol remains asleep, and a relatively normal pullback could run into a cluster of mechanical sellers. Meanwhile, the software squeeze has largely played out and the easy risk/reward is gone. Complacency is starting to look expensive.