Markets Don’t Wait: Why The Bottom Comes When Everything Still Looks Terrible
Searching for the inflection
One important lesson from trading markets over the past 25 years is that markets have had a track record of turning well ahead of any fundamental indicator that has been driving the price action. We have seen that over and over again especially in macro but also in sectors and single stock. And the smallest uptick in the right direction of said indicator can also be the starting point of a massive move (sometimes fake and premature but still...). Here is one current relevant chart and two old charts to support this point. Markets bottom when things stop getting worse, not when they get good.