MEME's maverick moves, SOX's swings, and tech's teflon triumph

MEME mania

MEME is back, trading at "delicate" levels again, beating the SPX once again over the past year (chart in %).

Source: Refinitiv

Erratic SOX

SOX has produced no returns, but huge volatility lately. The index remains inside the big trend channel, but erratic moves like the ones we have seen over the past sessions should not be dismissed. The 21 day is still lower, and the 50 day all the way down at 4460.

Source: Refinitiv

MoMo risks

Long Momentum risk means market risk due to a record overlap between the long side of Momentum and the S&P 500 (first chart). This could exacerbate the typical pattern that sees long leg driven Momentum selloffs coincide with a lower S&P 500 (2nd chart).

Source: MS QDS

Source: MS QDS

Tech skew is skewed

Basically nobody is fearful when it comes to downside in US tech.

Source: Nomura

NVDA skew

NVDA options continue pricing much more upside than downside "fear". Don't forget the upcoming GTC AI conference (March 18-21)...and yes Huang takes stage. Chart shows the April 19 expiry.

Source: Refinitiv

Yet another "same as the peak of the tech bubble"

Tech Stocks now account for as large of a % of total U.S. and Global Market Cap as they did during the Peak of the Dot Com Bubble.

Source: ASR

Hotter than hot

Futures basis in BTC very very hot...

Source: Velodata

Oil hedge

The cost of insuring against oil price spikes remains modest.

Source: Goldman

Nikkei fading

Nikkei's latest gap vs SPX is rather wide. Japan has become a very popular long over the past months, so watch this closely.

Source: Refinitiv

Nikkei fade could become "hard sell"

Nomura's quant desk on the possible gamma flip dynamics: "By our estimates, dealer gamma would flip short if the Nikkei 225 were to drop below 38,500. The second flipping point we highlight is the trigger level at which CTAs would start trimming their aggregate net long position in Japanese equities. As of now, CTAs are still adding to their net long position, although just barely. If the index were to fall below 38,000, we would expect the accumulated net long position to start getting walked back." Chart 2 shows the CTA Nikkei long.

Source: Nomura

Source: Nomura

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