More AI, No Protection
More AI, No Protection
The AI chase continues to broaden. Software is squeezing, China tech is waking up, Korea remains in full mania mode, and investors continue to abandon protection in favor of upside. The trend remains powerful, but the market is becoming increasingly one-sided.
THE comeback
Software is on a historic run, posting its biggest two-day outperformance versus the S&P 500 in more than 25 years. Total call option volume on IGV exploded to a record 280k contracts on Friday, the highest daily total ever recorded, followed by another 225k contracts on Monday (GS).
Source: LSEG Workspace
Software FOMO
Retail investors just recorded their largest-ever purchase of the IGV, with $46.0 million flowing into the fund intraday, about 40% above the previous record set in early February. More here.
Source: Vanda Research
Mean reversion mania
We laid out the software squeeze logic on April 14. It has delivered faster than expected. At range highs, we wouldn't get greedy.
Source: LSEG Workspace
China tech
HSTECH exploded nearly 5% overnight, closing above the downtrend line for the first time since the sector topped out. The move also pushed the index back above its 100-day moving average. Very compressed psychology as HSTECH finally breaks out of a massive triangle formation.
Source: LSEG Workspace
The IGV connection
According to JPM, China tech is the APAC version of IGV. Given how violent the software squeeze has become, things could get much more interesting should investors embrace a similar catch-up narrative in China.
Source: LSEG Workspace
Can't get enough
The Korean chase continues. Net allocation jumped 156 bps to 6.7%, while gross allocation rose 43 bps to 3.3%, highlighting growing conviction behind the move. Full Korea mania note here.
Source: GS
Vol Jaws
VIX vs VIXEQ (single stock VIX) gap continues to get even wider. The gap between VIXEQ and VIX is one of the widest we've seen in a long time. Investors remain willing to pay up for single-stock volatility while showing much less concern about broad market risk.
Source: LSEG Workspace
Well bid tech vol
NDX volatility remains well bid. We are nowhere near SoftBank-style upside panic levels, but investors continue to aggressively use options to chase technology exposure.
Source: LSEG Workspace
Inverse fear
Skew continues to collapse. Perhaps even more remarkable, normalized single-stock skew has fallen to the lowest levels seen in a very long time. More on the increasingly complacent market here.
Source: GS
Bitcoin bear
Bitcoin's puke continues. We are now at one of the most oversold levels since 2023, a threshold only breached once before.
