Nearing the edge of overblown fear?

The Market Ear Picture

"Real" fear kicking in?

NASDAQ continues imploding despite the fact rates are moving lower. Haven't seen this in a while...

Source: Refinitiv


The big if

BofA's derivatives team refers to Hartnett: "...if SPX 4.2k can't hold with this level of bearishness then there may be imminent risks of credit event/hard landing". They like the SPX DEC 4025 put as a tail hedge.

Equity positioning below the long-term average

"Equity positioning is now below the long-term average for most investor categories, particularly discretionary (HF and LO). But systematic strategies, particularly those that use volatility as an input in their allocation process, remain slightly above average"

Source: Barclays


Hedge funds panicking

Gross leverage coming down hard for EU HFs. Similar to the October bottom of last year. GS: "Leverage has decreased driven both by MTM and by net selling activity in October"

Source: GS Prime



NASDAQ and SPX reaching rather oversold levels here, but as we all know, oversold or overbought can stay at "over" levels for longer than most can endure.

Source: Refinitiv


Say hello to extreme fear

Sell extreme greed and buy extreme fear, or?

Source: CNN


Bulls/bears vs SPX

The spread between AAII bulls and bears has moved lower over the past months and is printing the lowest levels in a long time. Market has tended to bounce post bigger moves lower in the spread...

Source: Refinitiv


Green shoots

Small signs of VIX starting to "outperform"...

Source: Refinitiv


Bitcoin positioning spikes

Haven't seen this in a long time...

Source: JPM


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