No longer muted

Meaning of the day

Goldman's Scott Rubner nails it: "Market moves are exacerbated, and no longer muted, this is new, and changed today". This is very true, and very important going forward.

SPX - the only thing that matters

The "holy" trend channel since March lows. We are in the lower part of the channel, still slightly above the 50 day...

Source: Refinitiv

So rates matter after all?

Reality kicking in lately...although the gap between NASDAQ and the 10 year (inverted) remains extremely wide.

Source: Refinitiv

JPY and the 10 year

Big moves in big assets...

Source: Refinitiv

Now: just an "in-between" recession

"Many investors’ mistake in 2023 was expecting a 1H23 recession; we think that risk is 2024E and 2023 is just a slowdown".

Source: Stifel

Disinflation, but...

... don´t forget the reacceleration risk as well. TS Lombard's Blitz writes: "There is always the risk of growth reaccelerating as real wages pick up, along with the real purchasing power of household liquidity amassed on the sidelines. The probability of this outcome is low, recessionary dynamics are very much in play, but the risk cannot be ignored until recession shows up in earnest."

Source: TS Lombard

It rhymes...

Presented without comments.

Source: Jeff Klein/Bloomberg

Defaults & Bankruptcies

Bankruptcies are on the rise in the US (chart 1). Defaults in Europe are rising, but overall level still low despite the recent spike in financial stress (chart 2).

Source: Barclays

Source: Barclays

NDX and the 1999 analogy

Not that off...

Source: Refinitiv

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