Nobody In Control

Nobody in control

Bulls point to oversold conditions and strong demand. Bears point to leverage, rising supply, and growing signs of speculative excess. The result is a market dominated by violent intraday swings and very little conviction.

Stuck

NDX experienced massive intraday volatility, but the close was far less dramatic than the price action suggested.

The key short-term support zone remains around 28,800 (futures), while initial resistance comes in near 29,800. The index is now trading below the 21-day moving average, but remains comfortably above the 50-day. That said, the intraday lows briefly brought NDX within roughly 400 points of the 50-day, a reminder that momentum can unwind quickly when volatility picks up.

Source: LSEG Workspace

Chart of the day

Goldman's chart of the day: 5 day performance spread of S&P ex AI (+21bps) vs SPX (-110bps). AI leadership is no longer lifting the entire market.

Source: GS

The Puke

In case you missed it, leveraged ETF rebalancing flows were absolutely massive during Friday's panic. These are mechanical trades that must be executed regardless of liquidity, helping to amplify the selloff and volatility spike.

This is basically "synthetic short gamma", and works both ways.

Source: Nomura

Warning signals are piling up

7 of the 10 historical market-peak indicators have now triggered according to BofA, matching the average level seen ahead of prior bear markets. The latest red flags point to excessive speculation in high-P/E stocks and increasingly aggressive long-term growth expectations.

Tech is showing late-cycle behavior. Dispersion within Tech has reached its highest level since February 2000, while several fundamental trends are deteriorating, including weaker cash-flow conversion, rising equity and debt issuance, slowing buybacks, and hyperscaler capex approaching 100% of operating cash flow.

Full note here.

Source: BofA

Risk

The biggest risk may no longer be positioning. It may be supply.

The wave of equity issuance many expected for the second half of the year is starting to emerge, creating a potential headwind for a market already crowded with leverage. There is roughly $100 billion of leveraged exposure globally across semis and hardware-linked equities, alongside heavy retail participation. Convexity works both ways. The same flows that fueled the upside can quickly accelerate the downside once sentiment turns. Part of last week's selloff may have been exactly that. (GS, Privorotsky)

CTA projections

Modest flow projections, unless we go down hard. Pivots are: short term: 7293, med term: 7001, long term: 6581.

Source: GS/TME

The IPO wave is real

The IPO wave is accelerating. US equity issuance has climbed from roughly $30 billion per quarter in early 2023 to around $120 billion today, with several mega-IPOs expected in the coming months.

While investors worry new supply will require selling existing equities, history suggests issuance waves are often accompanied by strong market returns. Large IPOs may create short-term volatility, but strong inflows, buybacks, and healthy earnings growth continue to provide a powerful demand backdrop.

Supply is finally showing up. The problem for the bears is that demand is still showing up too.

Source: DB

Put mania

Before you get too bearish. Previous put volume explosions marked short term market lows.

Source: Macrocharts

From Korea with vol

The KOSPI "VIX" exploded higher overnight as traders chased upside exposure into an 8% index rally.

That type of upside volatility panic is rare. We saw similar behavior during the final innings of the dot-com bubble, when demand for upside optionality became so extreme that dealers struggled to supply it. History suggests that is not the sort of thing you see at the beginning of a move.

Korea remains the AI trade on steroids. At current volatility levels, the market is pricing roughly 5.6% daily moves. That's not a market. That's a casino. More here.

Source: LSEG Workspace

Soggy silver

Silver is trading below the 200-day MA, breaking the $68 support. We haven't closed below the longer term MA since the silver squeeze started a little more than a year ago.

Supports to watch from here: $60 and below that $52. More here.

Source: LSEG Workspace

Longer term

DXY bounced on that hinge long term weekly trend line. We have seen similar set ups before, resulting in the DXY eventually breaking up and squeezing hard. More on the dollar here.