Nobody Wants Bitcoin
Speculation Rotation
AI keeps making new heroes. Bitcoin keeps making lower highs. The divergence between crypto and the rest of the speculative universe is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.
The BTC Bear
BTC has traded one way only since hitting the 200DMA in mid-May. Momentum remains extremely poor as the breakdown extends again today. The 65k area is shaping up as a must-hold support.
Source: LSEG Workspace
Tech connection gone
Bit of chart fitting, but that BTC tech connection is fully gone.
Source: LSEG Workspace
Poor hedge
The "digital gold" narrative is taking another hit. BTC has often sold off during VIX spikes, but lately it has been selling off with VIX heading lower as well. If Bitcoin cannot rally when fear is falling, one has to wonder what exactly it is hedging.
Source: LSEG Workspace
Breaking perfection
BTC moved almost perfectly in tandem with software until recently. The latest squeeze in IGV has completely decoupled from Bitcoin, with software continuing higher while BTC struggles to gain traction.
BTC used to confirm speculative excess. Today, it is one of the few assets refusing to participate.
Source: LSEG Workspace
Follow the flows
The BTC top coincided with the moment the AI narrative went parabolic. One possible explanation is that speculative capital has simply found a higher-beta home in AI. In our view, SK Hynix remains one of the key AI mania names to watch.
Is an AI bear market the only thing that can bring those flows back to crypto?
If so, BTC bulls may find themselves in the unusual position of rooting for weakness in the very risk assets that have driven markets higher.
