Not Running Out of Oil… Just Running Out of Access
The world has oil—good luck getting it
We are not running out of oil globally but we are at risk of localized, temporary shortages, especially if the Strait of Hormuz situation persists. The system still has buffers; strategic reserves, rerouted flows, and substitution; but these are unevenly distributed, with Asia particularly exposed due to lower inventories and higher reliance on Gulf imports. So far, markets have adjusted via higher prices and trade shifts, limiting broad shortages, but signs of stress are emerging in specific products like naphtha and LPG, and in countries already seeing rationing. In short, this is not a supply exhaustion story, it’s a distribution and logistics shock that can create acute, regional scarcity even when global supply is sufficient.