Oil mania

The Market Ear Picture

Unstoppable oil

Oil continues to impress, currently printing the highest levels in 10 months. The golden cross signal we pointed out on Sep 1 has really worked well.

Source: Refinitiv


Has oil travelled too much too fast?

Zoom out for some perspective. Big golden crosses can lead to much bigger outsized moves than what we are seeing now…

Source: Refinitiv


Oil's inverse panic

Oil volatility, OVX, has declined steadily, but note the latest crash in volatilities. The volatility implosion offers great opportunities to use options for directional plays in oil going forward. For the ones that played our USO call spread logic (here), book some profits and make sure to roll up those strikes if you think there is more upside to oil.

Source: Refinitiv


Oil and the dollar

Contrary to what most think....oil up, dollar up has worked before as well.

Source: Refinitiv


Oil over AI

Oil has crushed the AI proxy, NYFANG, over the past 3 months.

Source: Refinitiv


Higher oil prices normally bullish

Higher oil price has generally been a positive sign in recent years – except in early 2022.

Source: Macrobond


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