Oil “VIX” At 121 — Markets Aren’t Pricing De-Escalation

OVX - pure panic

1. Quick de-escalation: Hormuz flows resume quickly; Brent averages ~$80 in March then mid-$70s, while TTF gas falls from ~€50 to high-€30s as inventories cushion short-term disruptions.

2. ~1-month Hormuz disruption: Markets tighten; Brent rises above $100 in March and TTF gas approaches €80, with faster inventory drawdowns and delayed normalization.