Rates On My Mind

Rates on my mind

Rates are starting to test the market's patience. The US 10-year is pushing toward 4.8%, yet equities and equity vol remain remarkably calm. The key from here is whether higher yields stay orderly or finally wake up rates vol and spill over into stocks.

Underneath the index, the setups are getting more interesting: semis have reset sharply versus software, Russell remains exposed to the rates move, Korea's export engine keeps improving and the AI capex boom is increasingly running into a cash flow problem.