Reflections on recession

Recession reflections

GS economists currently assign a roughly 20%-35% probability of a US recession in the coming year. Goldman: "Under such a scenario, we would invariably have to cut our EPS estimate even further. From a historical perspective, during a recession S&P 500 EPS typically falls by 13% from peak-to-trough before rebounding by 17% during the subsequent four quarters" (Goldman)

Recession reflections (#2)