Signs Of Upside Exhaustion

Upside Fatigue

The AI melt-up is starting to show the first signs of hesitation. Positioning in tech has become extremely crowded, small-cap beta chasing has gone vertical, and the spot-up, vol-up dynamic in NDX has reached outright historic levels. At the same time, rates continue grinding higher while downside hedging has become unusually cheap, creating an increasingly unstable setup beneath the surface.

Everybody chased the upside. Very few seem prepared for the downside.