The Silver Bear Trap
Still Sleeping On Silver?
Silver is starting to look interesting again. The recent breakdown has been reversed, momentum is improving, and speculators remain largely absent. If the dollar continues to weaken, silver could have considerably more room to run.
Silver shakeout?
Shakeout or breakdown? Silver has reclaimed the 200-day moving average, raising the possibility that the recent dip below long-term support was little more than a bear trap.
Source: LSEG Workspace
Silver squeezing
We outlined our silver thesis in the June 11 note, "Silver-back From The Dead." Since then, silver has continued squeezing higher, breaking above a short-term downtrend line in the process.
Despite the strong move, RSI remains far from overbought territory. The next resistance levels to watch come in around $72, followed by the more important $76 area.
Source: LSEG Workspace
Silver speculators
Will the speculators finally notice? Silver has rallied roughly 15% from its recent lows, but positioning remains far from stretched. A further push higher could start attracting the fast money.
Source: LSEG Workspace
The dollar connection
Silver has tracked the inverse dollar remarkably closely since December. If the recent dollar weakness persists, the tailwind for silver remains firmly in place.
Source: LSEG Workspace
That hammer
The massive weekly hammer we highlighted last week is now getting confirmation. Follow-through buying continues to support the bullish reversal case.
Taken together, the failed breakdown, improving momentum, subdued positioning and weaker dollar suggest the recent rally may have further room to run.
