TME Daily: Are we there yet in terms of the "squeeze"?

The Market Ear Picture

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First sign of a "squeeze top"

High SI stocks got covered in fairly large magnitudes this week. In terms of HF flows, JPM saw sizeable covering over the past week (2.3 sigma over past 5 days). The JPM basket of US High SI stocks was up 12.5% over the past 5 days (through Thursday), one of the largest 5d gains over the past year.

Source: JPM

Net leverage at highest point since May

Morgan Stanley PB Strategic Content Team notes this was the 2nd largest week of active de-grossing this year, with US L/S funds actually ending net buyers of equities after covering shorts in excess of what was sold on the long side. As a result of this dynamic, US L/S net leverage ended the week at its highest point since May (44%) but still far below historical levels (31st %tile over 1Y and 13th %tile since 2010). (Morgan Stanley)

Not much "risk" in the risky

The SPX 1 month 25 delta risk reversal is trading in a rather "muted" fashion. People aren't overly concerned about the downside...

Source: Spotgamma

This delta looks awful (still)

The rate of change in margin debt isn't looking great...

Source: Tier1Alpha

Source: Tier1Alpha

This sentiment indicator is off-lows

Fair, still in negative territory but.....(a) way off-lows (b) "a >100-day high" and (c) bar a few readings a 2022 high....Maybe this is the best we will get in terms of sentiment and this is the (a) signal to short again....

Source: Macrobond

This sentiment indicator too....

Maybe Kenny was right and... "the best that you can hope for is to die in your sleep....cause every hand's a winner, and every hand's a loser"

Source: Fear & Greed Index

One marginal buyer is fading soon - sell or sell?

The short gamma dealer crowd has been forced to chase the latest rally as they have become shorter deltas as we have squeezed higher. Note we flip into long gamma slightly higher. Dynamics would change if we flip into long gamma as dealers would become sellers on "upticks". The profile shows short gamma comes into play should we sell off from here. From a point of gamma we have a new sell or sell situation...

Source: Spotgamma

Pouncing the Pivot

Important if you are keen to buy because of the upcoming "Fed Pivot" in 2023. Kantro: "Market performance after the Fed is done hiking depends on 2 things: 1) are we heading towards a recession?; and 2) how far is that recession away? When recession followed, but recession was near, stocks saw a paltry pivot rally and then kept falling"

Source: Kantro

A normal bear

The average duration of a bear market is 20 months with a loss of 41%. Why could not this one be much worse than average..?

Source: Markets & Mayhem