Surging rates and stuck equities

4.2%

US 10 year broke the negative trend line a while ago. We are now well above the 21 day that has reversed and is sloping positively. The 50 day comes in around 4.2%, the first resistance to watch.

Source: Refinitiv

Lower for longer is very groupthink here

BofA writes: "FMS investors have never been as bullish on short-term rates as in Jan'24 (data going back to Apr'01) …a record of 91% expect short term rates to be lower in the next 12 months, up from 87% in Dec'23."

Source: BofA

The big long

Non dealers US equity positioning at very elevated levels.

Source: GS

SPX technicals

SPX remains stuck inside the 4720/4840 range. Chasing break out moves, both ways, has been a costly strategy so far. Note the negative RSI divergence going even more extreme.

Source: Refinitiv

Be boring

Low volatility beating high beta YTD.

Source: Refinitiv

Will "weaks" lead us even lower?

The crash in MEME and most shorted seems to be spilling over...

Source: Refinitiv

2 more weeks to go before buybacks are back in full force

There are 2 weeks left of the buyback blackout window. Companies will start to exit blackout as they report earnings.

Source: Goldman

Lowest since 1976

Jim Reid: "So a big change for China and for the world." Chart shows China Nominal GDP growth as the lowest since 1976 (excluding the Covid year of 2020).

Source: DB

China credit impulse

Nothing seems to be able to get China going...

Source: TS Lombard

New tech bear superlatives needed

The crash in Chinese tech has the HSTECH looking like a small cap stock having profit warned. The index is down 5% overnight, and RSI at lowest levels since the epic crash during the autumn of 2022.

Source: Refinitiv

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