Teflon tech defies rates

Highest since the SBV collapse

The US 10 year is trading at 3.92% as of writing. A level last seen when SBV hit the world. Note the 50 day crossing the 100 day moving average here. Previous big crosses saw yields move sharply higher...

Source: Refinitiv

Pushing it

Will they push tech to a new all time high as a share of sector fund assets? Big tech has decoupled from rates. GS writes: "Tech has had a tremendous rally despite higher rates, so on a scenario of lower rates I think this cohort has another leg higher".

Source: GS

Terrific tech

Two charts worth pondering, first a relative breakout and second an absolute break out.

Source: Datastream

Source: Datastream

Semis - from hated to "slightly" loved

Credit where credit is due, Goldman´s sales desk pointed out the extremely negative semis positioning chart in late January (chart 1). A lot has happened since then, especially post the latest melt up that has forced people into chasing hot semis (chart 2). Note we are still far from exuberant positioning...

Source: GS

Source: GS

Above 4500 they need to reload

Downside is the main risk when it comes to CTA exposure in SPX, but note they will be buying even more if SPX crosses the magical 4500 level.

Source: Nomura

Valuation

SPX is not looking overly cheap here...but on the other hand, who cares about valuation?

Source: Nomura

Fed tightening kills dollar volatility...

...until they realize they need to cut rates again.

Source: Soc Gen

Who has tech?

Look for many things in Europe, but not for tech...

Source: Barclays

No YOLO in Europe

Citi economic surprise index in US vs Europe needs little commenting.

Source: Refinitiv

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