Biggest de-risk of the year
Fundamental hedge fund net leverage has come down a lot since August highs and is now at YTD lows.
Source: GS Prime
Shorts at the bottom of a tight range
Short interest on individual stocks within the S&P500 as % of outstanding share.
The leadership gap has fallen from extremely elevated levels. Barclays, who pointed out the extreme readings weeks ago, writes: "The gap narrowed from a peak of 7.8% (99th percentile) to 2.0% now (~80th percentile)".
Hedgies selling tech
"Smart" money has been selling a lot of tech since August.
Source: GS PB
The percentage of stocks trading above the 50 day moving average has collapsed.
Higher for longer - energy edition
JPM upgrades energy. Main bullets:
1. Capital Slowdown: Prolonged high rates diminish new supply investments.
2. Equity Costs Rise: Cash breakevens surpass $75/bbl Brent post-buybacks, elevating oil's marginal cost as more cash returns to shareholders.
3. Transition Pressure: Accelerated shifts from hydrocarbons due to institutional and policy pressures amplify 'higher-for-longer' energy prospects, predicting a supply/demand gap of 1.1mbd by 2025, growing to 7.1mbd by 2030.
Oil - not moving because of the global recovery
Oil, BCOM and BCOMIN needs little commenting.
Sudden energy love
Can't really blame them, although we are far from "bullish" levels.
Source: GS PB
Dollar's golden cross
Like it wasn't enough...the DXY golden cross is now in place. There are some resistance levels around here, but a proper close above 106, and this risks squeezing even more....
Dollar shorts covering
Dollar shorts have been brutally punished during the recent rise in the dollar. Imagine they start going net long...
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