TME Weekend: 9 things you might have missed

Macro certainty

“When an indicator that shows that macro uncertainty is very low, that’s a huge tailwind for stocks.”

Source: Bloomberg

Smaller Q2 cuts

Analysts actually made smaller cuts than average for EPS estimates for SPX for Q2. Even that is working in favor of the bull.

Source: FactSet

You up?

Looks like 1H equity performance is doing a booty call to 2nd. The last 11 times equities were up >10% in the 1H, the market continued higher in the 2H. You have to go back to 1987 to find the first reversal.

Source: Ryan Detrick

The Mega-caps are mega for a reason

Mega-cap tech has consistently grown sales faster than the index. (AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL, META, TSLA, NVDA)

Source: Goldman

Tech fund flows

Positioning in technology funds has reversed much of its decline since late-2021 and has nearly returned to historical highs.

Source: EPFR

Not even Euphoria yet

Citi Panic/Euphoria. Highest in a year but not yet in Euphoria.

Source: CITI

De-risking

Taking some chips off the table....Equity L/S net leverage increased to as high as 54% in mid-June (which put it at the 50th %-tile since 2017) before ending the month near the 47th %-tile (JPM PI).

Drawdowns?

Drawdowns, we had a few, but then again, too few to mention...

Source: Stifel

Absolutely no idea

Jim Reid of Deutsche Bank: "I’ll be totally honest that I’ve absolutely no idea how to value Nvidia"

Source: Deutsche Bank

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