TME Weekend: I have abandoned my fear

Abandon all fear

VIX: Lowest weekly close since 2019...

Source: Bloomberg

No need for action: 2nd lightest day of the year

GS trading desk reports that Friday was a very slow day, but that "the bid" was still there buying the usual stuff...

"Our desk was a 2 on 1–10 scale in terms of overall activity levels Friday. Muted activity (2nd lightest full trading session of the year), our floor finished +7% better to buy with L/O and HFs net buyers with info tech and consumer discretionary most bought on a (light) notional basis. Our PB book finished the week net bought" (GS)

Structural growth. Structural bid

Technology Funds have seen capital inflows for 10 consecutive weeks, the longest stretch since September 2021. 10 weeks can become 10 months no?

Source: BofA

Nets: Nearly nothing

Overall net leverage on the GS Prime hedge fund book is at a 40th percentile on a 5-year lookback. Not a lot....

Source: GS Prime

Good September

Yes, September is the worst month for stocks on average. The good news is when SPX is up 10% YTD or more, and down in August, September seems to be a decent month. September higher 8 of 10 times and up median 2.6% (since 1950). (Ryan Detrick)

Sentiment says relax

The BofA Quant team sentiment model is actually closer to a "bullish for stocks" level than anything else. Sit still in the boat.

Source: BofA Quant

Bull base case: falling inflation will allow CBs to change course

12M US core PCE inflation picks up, but the 3M rate still points to a sharp deceleration.

Source: Macrobond

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