TME Weekend: Some things are as neutral as they get

The JPM TPM indicator is neutral

TPM level of positioning is just a tiny bit below average.

Source: JPM PI

Not too much and not too little

The GS "Positioning & Sentiment" indicator does not indicate anything.

Source: Goldman

All quiet on the Flow Front

Bill Meany’s PB Strategic Content team highlights that this week was relatively quiet from a flows perspective as funds trended towards adding to longs and shorts in relatively small but equal amounts. Of course, positioning in tech still remains high with megacap TMT net exposure in the ~96th %ile since 2020. Net leverage across the US sits at 44% (+3% WoW), while gross leverage is down -2% to 189%. (MS PB)

Momentum stocks flow back to earth

Momentum crowding stocks’ flows revert back to late May levels.

Source: JPM PI

As neutral as it gets?

All major economic surprise indices are converging towards zero.

Source: Macrobond

US10 YR

On a 40-year lookback, the US 10YT average is ~5.05%. Given the looming concern with 10YT rates at ~4.57%, perhaps stability and low volatility in rates matters more than the absolute numbers. (MS)

Shut-down shut-up

There have been 5 government shutdowns since 1995 and the S&P 500 traded positive during each one with an average return of 3.2%. And the most recent government shutdown, which was the longest in the last 30 years, saw the $SPX trade higher by more than 10%. (barchart)

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