Trading trend reversals

Keep it simple

Selling trend lines... Both SPX and the TYc1 futures reversing perfectly.

Source: Refinitiv

Bond vs equity volatility

The MOVE vs VIX ratio has moved higher recently. Dominic Wilson's idea is that equities just need some rates stability (ie lower MOVE) to continue to perform. "...for equities you probably just need to have more stability". Watching the MOVE closely going forward, especially post today's price action in rates.

Source: Refinitiv

Oil fear not buying it

The gap between oil volatility, OVX, and the VIX is very wide.

Source: Refinitiv

Semis

Albert Edwards: "Semiconductors last saw this surge just prior to Nasdaq collapse…and sales levels aren’t currently supporting high IT inventory".

Source: Soc Gen/JPM

Stretched Tech

S&P500 Tech relative (chart 1). MSCI World Tech 12m forward. P/E relative (chart 2). S&P500 Tech relative and US 10Y bond yield (chart 3).

Source: JPM

Source: JPM

Source: JPM

IWM call mania

Small cap call open interest has exploded to the upside. Russell volatility is well bid and with skew at 10 year lows, GS derivatives desk thinks call spreads are attractive as you take advantage of relative elevated upside volatility (and is a cheap way to hedge Russell shorts).

Source: GS

Small cap zombies...

...are many.

Source: Soc Gen

Bankruptcy bull

US Bankruptcy filings, by year.

Source: S&P Global

The bitcoin surge

JPM's position proxy based on open interest in CME Bitcoin futures contracts has seen a huge move higher.

Source: JPM

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